Analyze the Analyst: Rating Football Recruits...
So who did we sign? How many 5- Star prospects did we get? What are our recruits ranked nationally? Those are the question we as as fans of our favorite school. We ask these questions from our bars tools during the long off season that is in between the conclusion of the national championship, and kick off in September. If our school was lucky enough to land those highly touted recruits, we raise our beer in cheers to the season that is to come. If you are a student, alumni, or simply a fan, you may have raised a glass in anticipation to the signing of these top recruits. begining their college football careers this season.
All of these recruits are rated as 5-Star Prospects by Scout.com, the numerical rankings nationally were published by Athlon Sports magazine, in their preseason preview:
USC - The Trojans recruit Running Back, Joe McNight, comes to Southern California as the #2 rated recruit in the nation.
Florida - The Gators landed the 16th rated recruit in the nation, in Defensive Tackle, Torrey Davis.
Ohio State - The Buckeyes signed the 25th ranked player nationally when they signed Eugene Clifford, Safety.
Illinois - Ron Zook is brining the 26th best player, Martez Wilson, Defensive End, to Champagne this season.
Florida- the defending national champs also signed the 40th rated player overall, when they signed Line Backer, Lorenzo Edwards.
So this means these guys are going to be All Americans, right? To land a four star recruit is a big deal, but a 5-Star guy, well he’s a slam dunk right? And numbers wise, signing a guy off the top 100 list is the measure of a great recruit, so the Top-40, well that has to be the cream of the crop doesnt it?
Don’t get all teary eyed in your beer just yet, and tell your buddy to stop singing we are the champions on his bar stool next to you. Here is a list of the players, in 2002, ranked at the same spots as these highly touted prep players, as Scout.com 5-Star Players, and numerically by Athlon Sports.
2002 - Prep All America, 5-Stars that were:
Prep Ranking #2 Overall
Ryan Moore, WR - University of Miami, Hurricanes.
Ryan Moore was rated by many analysts as the #2 recruit overall in the entire nation, behind only Vince Young. While Vince Young filled the #1 ranking better than anyone else in the class possibly could have, Moore did anything but live up to expectations. He caught 16 balls a year for his final three seasons, and was suspended by the University for the first 8 games of his senior campaign. He was not drafted in the 2007 draft.
Prep Ranking #16 Overall
Brandon Jeffries, OL - University of Tennessee
Brandon Jeffries spent two years as a Volunteer, but never played in one game. He was never eligible there, transfered to NC State, but could not become eligible there as well. He played for a season at a community college in North Carolina, and finished up his career starting 11 games for the Division II Newbury college Indians, at right guard. He is currently out of football.
Prep Ranking #25 Overall
Dishon Platt, WR - Florida State University
Platt did not play one down in college football anywhere. He failed to gain admission to FSU, transferred to South Florida, but failed to gain eligibility there, and dropped out of school
Prep Ranking #28 Overall
Marquis Johnson, WR - University of Texas
Johnson failed to qualify academically at Texas, and then spent a year at a community college in Kansas. Transferred to Texas Tech with three yeas left, and played only two there. He played in one game in 2004, and in ‘05 caught 13 balls for 74 yards, and 1 TD.
Prep Ranking #40 Overall
Justin Zwick, QB - Ohio State University
Zwick chose to stay home, and attend OSU, where the Buckeye faithful had him pegged to be the second coming of Johnny Unitas. He didn’t quit live up to the hype. He was beaten out by a player recruited as an ‘athlete’ named Troy Smith, who went on to win the Heisman. He was a career back-up at QB.
Don't Believe The Hype, Anything Can Happen
There is not one guy who actually sees all of the high school players play, and ranks him based on what he sees. These rankings are driven by hype, and don’t get too excited about them. Also, out of the 2002 Athlon top 40 recruits list, only two players went on to become 1st round NFL Draft Picks, the aforementioned Young, and Oregon’s Haloti Ngata, ranked 12th as a prepster.
So throw those recruiting lists out this Saturday, come to the bar with your teams colors on, and expect anything. Some guy from Cleveland named Smith, who no one was talking about, could dethrone that next best thing, and one day win the Heisman. Thats why we they play the games.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Just Our Thoughts...
According to the Plain Dealer Sports Section on August 22, the Cleveland Browns are reporting that there were 7 Arrests of Fans, in the stands, at the Browns second preseason game at Cleveland Browns stadium against the Detroit Lions. This number is down from 8 Fan Arrests in the opening preseason game. It was also noted, that in addition to these arrests, there were 86 other, additional, fan ejections in week 1. There were 74 additional Fan Ejections in Week 2.
The Browns are publishing these statistics all season, in attempt to improve fan behavior at games. They should be more focused on the offense.
We here at the Nosebleeds, will be following these statistics as the year goes on to see one thing...
We want to see if the Browns Offense can outscore the amount of Fan Arrests on a per game basis during the regular season.
Its gonna be close, and the Las Vegas money is indicating the 'Arrests per Game' currently has a slight edge over the point production of the Browns Offense.
The Preseason numbers look like this...
Week 1 - Kansas City
Browns Offense: 9 Points scored (Barclay's Special Teams TD gave them 16)
Fan Arrests Week 1: 8
*The Browns Offense edged out a week 1 win over the Fan Arrests by the skin of their teeth. If the beer guy in the upper deck of the Dawg Pound would have served one more beer before last call, the Fan Arrests surely could have turned 2 or 3 of the 86 people ejected, into a Fan that got Arrested, and given the Fan Arrests a win.
Week 2 - Detroit
Browns Offense: 20
Fan Arrest: 7
*The Fan Arrests seemed to have this contest won, until Brady Quinn entered the game for the first time with 9:20 left in the 4th. With the Arrests clinging to a 7-6 lead over the Browns offense, Brady Quinn was able to rally the Browns for 2 TD's against Detroits 3rd string defense.
The regular season...
Not too many people Tail Gate for Preseason football. They will when the regular season begins, and with the excitement of the real game and Tail Gating at its zenith, expect the arrest numbers to increase in the regular season. If the number of Fan Arrests increases to 15 or 16, expect the Browns offense to be in trouble. The Browns offense put up 14.9 points per game last season
Can The Browns Offense Out Rush the Fan Ejections?
Another stat we will be tracking is if the Browns Running Game is able to 'Out Rush' the number of fan ejections in a given game. The Browns rushed for 83.4 yards a game last season. There were 86 Fan Ejections in week 1 of the Preseason, and 74 Fan Ejections in week 2. Its gonna be close.
Posted by Shaver Sports at 3:57 PM
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Just Our Thoughts: Brady Quinn Was Over-exposed, Will Be a Solid Pro
Brady Quinn looked real good last night in his NFL debut for the Cleveland Browns. He entered the game with 9:20 on the 4th quarter clock for the first time since South Bend, and led the team down the field in a commanding fashion. He threw for 155 yards, on 13-20 passing, and connected on 2 touchdown passes of 6 yards each. His final drive began with 1:52 left on the clock and he took the Browns 92 yards for the score. His reads were quick, and right, and he was the best thing the Dawg Pound has seen behind center since Bernie Kosar was in the prime of his career. (My apologies to Ty Detmer, Spergeon Winn, and Don Strock)
Now the fact of the matter is Quinn did do his damage against the Detroit Lions 3rd and 4th string. And it is true, if you can’t play defense for the Lions, you cant play defense in the NFL. In addition to that, it is also true that the Lions were playing what looked to be a ‘prevent the prevent’ defense, almost 30 yards off the ball at times. But nevertheless, Quinn was also playing with the Browns 3rd and 4th string offensive players. And it is safe to say that, over the last few years, if you cant play offense for the Browns than you cant play offense in the NFL. It is also true that 4 of Quinn’s incompletions were intentional spikes (making him 13-16, 2 TD’s). The kid looked good, and the kid looked NFL ready, just like he told us he was.
Quinn’s performance is an example of something that is becoming common in sports today. He is an example of an athlete who was over-exposed on the collegiate ranks, and unfairly criticized. We have seen every game Quinn has ever played in college. Every game at Notre Dame is on national television. We have seen his good days, and we have seen his bad days. We watched him grow, than flourish, and then forced to live up to ridiculous hype as a senior.
We have seen Brady Quinn praised when he won, and criticized when he lost - 41-40. Did Alex Smith have to live up to that at Utah? Had the common fan heard of him until his senior year? He was the first pick overall in the draft. Did Jay Cutler have to live up to that level of scrutiny at Vanderbilt? Are there the same amount of sports fans in this country that hate Utah as much as they hate Notre Dame? How about all of those Vandy haters? People didn’t know who these guys were, and gave them the benefit of the doubt. Everyone knew Brady, and saw him loose to USC, and Ohio State, and said he wasn’t good in the big game. Brady didn't cover Dwayne Jarret, and Ted Ginn though.
I think Brady slipped on draft day the way he did because he was over exposed as a collegiate athlete. It is the same reason behind why certain foreign basketball players get drafted over American collegiate stars. It is my opinion that their will be 21 NFL teams that will wish they picked Brady Quinn in last years draft when it is all said and done. And last night’s Preseason debut is just a glimpse of what’s to come. But what do I know, I’m just a guy from the Nosebleeds.